The autonomous vehicle market is poised to invoke a revolution in the automobile industry including public transportation systems, car rental and sharing systems, vehicle leasing and ownership, industrial transportation, and automotive insurance practices and systems. The degree of autonomy in vehicles is measured levels from zero (fully human operated) to five (fully automated system) with evolution from levels 1 through 4 consisting of an autopilot system combined with some level of human control or intervention capability. Autonomous vehicles are anticipated to become the foundation of transportation as a service globally.
Autonomous Vehicle Market Dynamics
Market leading autonomous vehicle use cases will be found primarily within the business realm with an emphasis on shipping and commercial fleets. By way of example, Kroger is using unmanned autonomous vehicles to deliver groceries in Scottsdale, Arizona. Commercial operation of self-driving cabs (also referred to as “robo taxis”) is the goal of leading companies in the autonomous vehicle market sub-market for human transport such as Uber and Lyft as self-driving vehicles will significantly reduce the cost per mile for personnel transport. The self-driving vehicle market evolution within the fleet sub-market will occur in three phases: (1) Human controlled fleets, (2) Machine/human controlled fleets, and finally (3) Completely autonomous (e.g. machine driven) vehicles that leverage various technologies including sensors, AI, cognitive computing, geo-fencing, GIS/mapping, and more.
In terms of general consumer autonomous vehicle market adoption, Mind Commerce anticipates that end-users will not fully embrace self-driving vehicles until the 2024 time-frame. In addition to overcoming public trust factors relative to safety, the autonomous vehicle market is also focused on the major consumer upsides to self-driving vehicles, which include less expensive transport, opportunities for ride sharing and fractional ownership, and ultimately reduced outright leasing and ownership of cars, vans, and trucks. This is anticipated to have a major impact on OEMs and traditional automakers, despite the fact that market leading automobile manufacturers are aggressively pursuing autonomous vehicle product offerings.
Paradoxically, automotive vendors are also continuously upgrading their fleets to offer more connected vehicles, which provide drivers with a substantially more safe, enjoyable, and informative driving experience. However, autonomous vehicles are also connected via IoT technologies and various broadband and narrow-band wireless solutions. In the near future, Mind Commerce anticipates that automobile vendors will offer extended versions of connected vehicle apps to human occupants within the autonomous vehicle market that capitalize upon hands-free operation and even fully immersive experiences for longer trips.
The automotive ecosystem is also faced with disruption from electric vehicles (EV), which has transformed supply chain economics at the vehicle component level as well as consumer value perception and life-cycle management. Improvements in battery cost/performance and reduction in cost of power-train components for EV will lead to lower overall purchase cost that is more comparable with traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
The autonomous vehicle ecosystem will also be highly disruptive with respect to the consumer segment regarding the traditional production and sales cycle. This will be due largely to the vast amount of data produced by self-driving cars, vans, and trucks. The use of AI and big data analytics will allow both real-time decision making as well as post event analytics. Information gathered will be used for fine-tuning vehicle operations as well as mass customization within the automotive industry. This will serve to hasten dramatic transformation with the automobile industry regarding fractional ownership, ride sharing, and the vehicle “as a service” economy.
Autonomous Vehicle Market Report
This report assesses the autonomous vehicle market, including leading vendors, strategies, product and service offerings. The report evaluates autonomous vehicles by autonomy level, power-train type, components, and supporting technologies. It also evaluates the impact of major technologies on the autonomous vehicle market such as 5G, AI, Mobile Edge Computing, IoT, data analytics, and smart building integration.
The report provides global and regional forecasts for the autonomous vehicle market including hardware, software, and services along with emerging technologies from 2019 to 2025. The report covers major consumer and commercial categories including personal vehicles, shared vehicles (ride sharing and shared vehicles/partial ownership. The report also evaluates the autonomous vehicle market for ICE vehicles, EV, and ICE/EV hybrids.
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