Project Fi: Twenty Percent Carrier Market Share Loss in 20 Months

Published: May 2015   Pages: 30
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Google positions Project Fi as a program to deliver a fast, easy wireless experience in close partnership with leading carriers, hardware makers, and our users. The company use will more than a million Wi-Fi hotspots that it will use as the foundation of its network, filling in the gaps with cellular based on deals with Sprint and T-Mobile.

Mind Commerce predicts that AT&T and Verizon will lose 20% of their cellular customers within 20 months of the launch of Google’s Project Fi. The immediate driver for that may be a simple churn of customers away from the number one and number two providers toward the number three (Sprint) and number four (T-Mobile). However, other market forces will contribute to that 20% loss of market share.

Two concepts support this premise: disruption and disaggregation. Verizon and AT&T's premium mobile services are disrupted and disaggregated by low cost Wi-Fi and VoIP offerings offered through competing mobile providers, cable providers and Wi-Fi-only services. All purchases of Mind Commerce reports includes time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

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Table of Contents:

1.0 Executive Summary 7
2.0 Introduction 9
2.1 The 80/80 Rule: What Drives Migration from Premium Cellular? 10
3.0 Introduction: VoWi-Fi - The 5th largest Mobile Provider? 12
4.0 Technology Overview 14
4.1 Cellular 14
4.2 Wi-Fi 14
4.3 VoIP 14
4.4 Wi-Fi FirstSM 14
4.5 Carrier Wi-Fi 14
4.6 Cable Wi-Fi 15
4.7 Hotspot 2.0 15
4.8 Softphone 15
5.0 Breakdown of the 20% Migration Away From AT&T and Verizon 16
6.0 Implications of Project Fi 19
7.0 Churn to Competing Cellular Providers With Aggressive Wi-Fi Strategy 20
8.0 Migration to Cable Quadruple Plays 22
8.1 Total Market Domination by Cable Providers: Wi-Fi = Quadruple Play 22
8.2 What If All Cable Providers Offered VowiFi? 23
9.0 Migration to VoWiFi Plays 24
9.1 Scratch 24
9.2 Republic Wireless 25
9.3 FreedomPop 26
9.4 Cablevision's Freewheel 26
10.0 Key Take Aways: Objections, Market Drivers, Predictions, Winners and Losers 27
10.1 Objections to VoWiFi 27
10.2 Market Drivers 27
10.3 Predictions 28
10.4 Winners 29
10.5 Losers 29
11.0 Conclusions 30


Figure 1: What Drives Migration – 80% of Time there is No Mobile Connection 10
Figure 2: Market Share by major cellular providers in US 2011 - 2014 20
Figure 3: Total Market Domination by Cable Providers via Quadruple Play 22
Figure 4: How Scratch Customers use Wi-Fi and Data 24
Figure 5: Profile of Scratch Customers - Use of VoWiFi and Cellular 25


Table 1: Subscriber Counts for Top Cellular Providers in USA 12
Table 2: Comparison of VoWiFi plays that challenge AT&T, Verizon Market Share 18
Table 3: Value comparisons AT&T, Verizon vs. cellular competitors and Project Fi; 21
Table 4: US Cable Providers with One Million or More Subscribers 23
Table 5: Objections to VoWiFi 27




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